MLB forecast slate — 2026-09-04
Verified all-time record: 100-83 — 54.6% correct (183 graded games; through 2026-09-02).
Record start: 2026-08-15 · Pending: 5 · Excluded/ungraded: 0 · Record as of: 2026-09-03T03:58:42.994714Z · Policy: daily_web_first_verified_v1
10:00 a.m. provisional. The selected scheduler run started at 10:17:59 a.m. ET and uses a forecast as of 10:18:41 a.m. ET. Later lineup, starter, postponement, weather, and in-game changes are not reflected.
Run summary
Coverage
16 scheduled · 16 forecast · 0 withheld
Forecast as of2026-09-04T14:18:41.161511Z
Data health
degraded / amber
Temporal audit
PASS · 14/14 checks · 2,144 values · zero findings
- Run ID:
c214ceffaf311ad1bd72f505b630e6cbeaf05142b9feca10cd9c81aec1a8f147 - Forecast vintage:
4d7005b886988ecf732be6ab2320ce3dbc357ee6235868be240302b518bed77b - Champion:
calibrated_elo v1; model artifact79a00a6204e7ff81467b028ad0675c62df2d3eab8c686e3d9122b2e5284729c5 - Calibration:
e6845103fa473c893afb4dcb3bc609955b035d89d3cb06847aa42559862052d2 - Feature schema:
historical-core-v1.2; code revisionc03018015df229126b887a3fe6e8ac9d7df4f092 - Data health: all 16 forecasts use projected lineups and explicit fallback features. Issued Open-Meteo weather vintages were used.
- Temporal audit: PASS — audit
cbad04c400991510571cce1961b7169874a9ed8f4fa56e8a41952d5e384bbead;feature.known_at <= forecast.as_of. - Operational health: RED — the morning forecast succeeded, but the latest pregame refresh, lineup poll, final forecast, and nightly health operations failed or timed out; postgame results succeeded.
Game forecasts
These are independent calibrated model probabilities. Expected runs are separate model-generated simulation outputs. Market probabilities were not used.
| Start ET | Away | Home | Predicted winner | Away win | Home win | Expected runs A-H | Probable starters | Lineups A/H | Stage | Health | Material warnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2:10 p.m. | Detroit Tigers | Cleveland Guardians | Detroit Tigers | 58.11% | 41.89% | 5.08-4.18 | Keider Montero / Logan Allen | projected/projected | provisional | amber | 14 explicit fallback features; starters unconfirmed |
| 6:10 p.m. | Milwaukee Brewers | Cincinnati Reds | Milwaukee Brewers | 60.14% | 39.86% | 5.21-4.51 | Shane Drohan / Rhett Lowder | projected/projected | provisional | amber | 24 explicit fallback features; starters unconfirmed |
| 6:40 p.m. | Atlanta Braves | Philadelphia Phillies | Atlanta Braves | 54.56% | 45.44% | 4.74-4.35 | Chris Sale / Cristopher Sánchez | projected/projected | provisional | amber | 4 explicit fallback features; starters unconfirmed |
| 6:45 p.m. | Los Angeles Angels | Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 39.29% | 60.71% | 4.07-5.40 | Ryan Johnson / Jared Jones | projected/projected | provisional | amber | 14 explicit fallback features; starters unconfirmed |
| 7:05 p.m. | Boston Red Sox | Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox | 61.42% | 38.58% | 4.98-4.48 | Ranger Suarez / Shane Baz | projected/projected | provisional | amber | 14 explicit fallback features; component home-win probabilities materially disagree |
| 7:10 p.m. | San Francisco Giants | New York Mets | New York Mets | 40.34% | 59.66% | 4.65-4.79 | Matt Wilkinson / Nolan McLean | projected/projected | provisional | amber | 37 explicit fallback features, including away-starter statistics |
| 7:10 p.m. | Chicago Cubs | Miami Marlins | Chicago Cubs | 58.90% | 41.10% | 4.86-4.45 | Shota Imanaga / Janson Junk | projected/projected | provisional | amber | 24 explicit fallback features; starters unconfirmed |
| 7:15 p.m. | Detroit Tigers | Cleveland Guardians | Detroit Tigers | 58.11% | 41.89% | 5.56-3.99 | Andrew Sears / Foster Griffin | projected/projected | provisional | amber | Doubleheader game 2; 27 explicit fallback features, including away-starter statistics |
| 7:40 p.m. | Minnesota Twins | Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 43.94% | 56.06% | 4.46-5.11 | Zebby Matthews / Erick Fedde | projected/projected | provisional | amber | 14 explicit fallback features; starters unconfirmed |
| 8:05 p.m. | Tampa Bay Rays | Texas Rangers | Tampa Bay Rays | 58.32% | 41.68% | 4.72-4.56 | Nick Martinez / Trevor Williams | projected/projected | provisional | amber | 14 explicit fallback features; component probabilities materially disagree |
| 8:10 p.m. | Toronto Blue Jays | Kansas City Royals | Toronto Blue Jays | 54.57% | 45.43% | 4.57-5.22 | Jameson Taillon / Daniel Lynch IV | projected/projected | provisional | amber | Away starter absent from active-roster snapshot; 15 fallbacks; component and champion/simulation probabilities disagree |
| 8:10 p.m. | Arizona Diamondbacks | Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 48.52% | 51.48% | 4.69-4.89 | Merrill Kelly / Cristian Javier | projected/projected | provisional | amber | 14 explicit fallback features; starters unconfirmed |
| 8:40 p.m. | St. Louis Cardinals | Colorado Rockies | St. Louis Cardinals | 54.56% | 45.44% | 6.08-6.24 | Andre Pallante / Ryan Feltner | projected/projected | provisional | amber | Away starter absent from active-roster snapshot; 25 explicit fallback features |
| 9:40 p.m. | New York Yankees | San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 47.57% | 52.43% | 4.16-4.57 | Max Fried / Walker Buehler | projected/projected | provisional | amber | 14 explicit fallback features; starters unconfirmed |
| 10:10 p.m. | Athletics | Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 39.62% | 60.38% | 3.44-5.48 | Kade Morris / Logan Gilbert | projected/projected | provisional | amber | 14 explicit fallback features; starters unconfirmed |
| 10:10 p.m. | Washington Nationals | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 42.61% | 57.39% | 4.69-5.00 | Jackson Kent / Blake Snell | projected/projected | provisional | amber | 27 explicit fallback features, including away-starter statistics |
Historical-record provenance
- Record ID:
d3d310d7c1cbfb2322be6f98ca4657eb16ee4be813bb368b702b16cce570982b - Arithmetic gate: 100 wins + 83 losses = 183 graded; service accuracy 54.644808743169406%, displayed as 54.6%.
- Five prior-date games remain pending. None are excluded; the current report date is excluded from grading.
Input provenance
- Schedule manifest:
4511a9bb67543d049c354e482172fdb046a6464e03aca51f60792cbae68f2e37 - Active-roster snapshot:
ea73f5888efe2efe33c3b5f8160e5e6be8c84df25eb8f24091c3008abf81dcf9 - Live-input snapshot:
1ed71441a4936d85388a48a1b7c0f9c6bb3316b2b18d50f489c68c36b3178512 - Lineup mode:
projected_roster_lineups; weather mode:issued_open_meteo.
Limitations
- All 16 games use projected lineups. Probable starters remain unconfirmed; two away starters were absent from their active-roster snapshots.
- Optional odds are disabled. Market benchmarks and market-informed probabilities are unavailable and were not used.
- No games were withheld or excluded from today's slate. Five prior-date results remain pending and are not counted.
- LLM text is presentation only and did not calculate or change predictions or correctness labels.
- Probabilities express uncertainty and are not betting guarantees.